Exposure and vulnerability modeling for disaster risk assessment

Session Title: 

Exposure and vulnerability modeling for disaster risk assessment in urban areas

Organized by:

Focus:

Disaster risk assessment relies on the complex intersection of natural and human-driven hazards, exposed elements (people, housing, infrastructure, and ecosystems), and their vulnerability (the susceptibility to harm and capacity to adapt). As climate change and urbanization intensify global hazards, accurately capturing the multidimensional nature of both is critical. Traditionally, risk modeling has relied on sparse, static geoinformation, coarsely resolved census data,
and deterministic indices. However, these snapshots fail to capture multifaceted real-world conditions shaped by dynamics such as day-night human mobility, socio-economic developments, informal urban expansion, and cascading multi-hazard events. This session brings together researchers transitioning from static risk mapping to dynamic, systemic frameworks across all disaster risks. We invite contributions focusing on novel methodologies, emerging
data streams, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to extract, model, and project exposure and vulnerability. 

Key topics of interest include:

• Dynamic, high-resolution population mapping (annual, seasonal, intra-day variations)
• AI-driven estimations of socio-economic vulnerability
• Fine-grained physical exposure, vulnerability, and cost models (building, infrastructure, ecosystem inventories)
• Projecting future urban risk using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
• Monitoring informal settlement exposure and vulnerability